AS the economic machinery gets whirring in 2015, TONY MERNAGH, executive director of the Brighton and Hove Economic Partnership, gives his predictions on the political and business landscape of the year ahead.

NATIONALLY I would predict that the only party guaranteed to be forming a government in 2015 will be the Liberal Democrats, in coalition with another party.

Locally it is a bit harder to call although it does seem compelling to conclude that the great experiment that saw a Green administration is probably coming to an end, for now at least. But don’t write them off.

Whoever is in office, the local authority will be engrossed in trying to implement the £26 million of savings identified for 2015/16 and identifying a further £76 million over the next three years.

It won’t be pretty and very few residents have any idea of the sheer scale of cuts to services that they will see by 2019.

Nationally the cracking economic growth of the past year will slow as the UK succumbs to the turmoil in Europe, which is heading for deflation.

Brighton and Hove isn’t immune from what’s happening nationally so I’d anticipate a slow down here as well though nothing desperate.

We are already ahead of the national game in terms of productivity growth so we can accommodate some slack in the system as long as it doesn’t last for long.

Digital will continue to thrive and the commencement of work on Circus Street and possibly City College will boost construction assuming that we can find the skilled labour.

Local tourism and hospitality will have a better year than 2014 – which wasn’t at all bad – as incomes finally manage to outstrip inflation and people actually feel better off.

Interest rates will rise in the summer but not enough to damage the ‘feel better’ factor (we are quite a way off the ‘feel good’ factor yet).

But high street retail sales will continue to be chipped away by the internet, accelerated by phones and tablets becoming the most popular devices for shopping (and pretty much everything else).

Large retailers will probably struggle more than small ones and fashion retailers trying to second guess the vagaries of climate change will suffer most of all. The supermarket price war will get silly before it ends around Easter.

Local house price increases will slow as the capital overheats and the ‘London effect’ on Brighton wanes a little but practically all of the bonus that the revamp of stamp duty will very briefly give to buyers will just be added onto the asking price and boost prices in the short run.

As long as the nation builds about 140,000 fewer houses than it needs every year the laws of supply and demand will always generate upward pressure on prices.

Whatever happens, locally or nationally, Brighton and Hove remains a fantastic place to enjoy a boom or sit out a bust.