SUSSEX is split on the future of the EU with city dwellers backing the Remain campaign while those in the countryside want out.

Top pollster YouGov made the claim as we launch our referendum coverage today which will see an Argus EU debate on June 8.

Brighton and Hove has been dubbed one of the Remain capitals in the country while rural Sussex is anticipated to back a UK exit from the EU.

Pollsters said Brighton was alongside Bristol and London as pro-EU hotspots but immigration fears among older voters could see the rest of Sussex vote Leave.

A strong Remain vote will be reliant on mobilising the youth vote with campaigners worried the EU debate is a turn-off for younger generations.

The push to engage the student and youth vote is hotting up with two weeks until the registration deadline with Bexhill-raised comedian Eddie Izzard spearheading that campaign by visiting campuses around the country.

Britain Stronger In Europe board member Caroline Lucas MP said young people could not afford to let older generations dictate their futures and allow Britain “to sleepwalk into isolation”.

The MP for Brighton Pavilion said: “This vote is momentous for all of us but it is deeply concerning that so far the debate has failed to engage those who have never in their lifetime had a say on the European question, and yet whose entire future will be affected by this vote.

“Young people mustn't let older generations steal that chance away from them and allow Britain to sleepwalk into isolation.”

YouGov politics researcher Chris Curtis said: “Brighton is one of the most Remain-y places in the country along with London and Bristol, it has a lot of Green voters, and is most likely to vote to remain.

“But for the rest of Sussex, you have coastal towns full of old people and older voters who are much more likely to vote leave, they are much more concerned about immigration than younger people.”

It is said that the outcome of the EU referendum is going to be even tougher to predict than the last general election, for which many leading pollsters came under fire for failing to call a Conservative majority.

Tom Mludzinski, director of political polling at ComRes, said the firm was working to fix what went wrong in 2015 with new modelling simulating respondents’ likelihood to vote based on their demographics.

He added: “A referendum presents new challenges but we have decided to only conduct phone polls for this referendum as we believe they are showing a more accurate picture.

“We are confident in the changes we’ve made but the referendum sees us starting with little historical precedent which makes this more difficult.”

CLAIM THAT 74,000 JOBS WOULD BE LOST

STRONGER In campaigners claimed yesterday that leaving would mean the loss of 74,000 jobs in the South East region.

That would make the region the hardest hit with the South East economy shrinking by £8.8 billion.

There would also be an estimated rise of 9,000 youths out of work and a serious threat to the 500,000 jobs linked to European Union exports.

George Osborne has already predicted that each UK household would be £4,300 a year worse off by 2030.

Leave campaigners claim the chancellor cannot confidently predict what is going to happen in 14 months – let alone 14 years.

Uncertainty over what a post-Brexit economy might look like has put off many voting to leave with companies expressing concerns about how the uncertainty would affect their long-term planning.

Sir Andrew Bowden conceded in the short-term there might be difficulties but said longer-term prosperity was worth the cost.

Leave campaigners have said the best way to make the UK economy flourish is to restore full autonomy.

The Vote Leave party claims that the £350 million the UK sends every week to Brussels could instead by spent on the NHS or scientific research.

Like almost all figures in the referendum campaign, this one is also in disputed.

DISPUTE ON IMPACT ON HOUSING CRISIS

LEAVING the EU would ease Brighton and Hove’s housing crisis, according to Leader of the House of Commons and Brexit campaigner Chris Grayling.

He told The Argus that the biggest burden and pressure has been in population moving from the European Union to the region and that leaving the EU would ease migratory pressures on local housing, schools and health services.

The claims have been rejected by Remain campaigners, who said the city’s own housing crisis was fuelled by demand from London and was further exacerbated by current Government policy on affordable housing.

Chancellor George Osborne has claimed that house prices could drop by as much as 18 per cent over the next two years and that Brexit would cause an “economic shock” that will increase the cost of mortgages.

His claims have been backed by the National Association of Estate Agents which suggested a UK exit would wipe £7,500 off London house prices and £2,300 elsewhere.

The Vote Leave campaign said first-time buyers would welcome a drop in prices, especially in Brighton and Hove.

Other experts are less convinced Brexit would have any major impact. Stephen Williams, from Brewin Dolphin, said Brexit would impact only interest rates and not the supply and demand issues that are the leading factors in the country’s property market.

BATTLE TO CONTROL TERRORIST SCOURGE

MEDIA reports this year have already indicated specific terrorist threats focusing on Brighton and Gatwick.

Meanwhile warnings have also been issued about people smugglers targeting smaller ports like Newhaven.

Brexit campaigners believe the country can only be made safer by regaining control of its borders and point to comments by US spy chief James Clapper who warned free movement of citizens around the EU allowed IS sleeper cells into Europe.

Brighton and Hove Vote Leave campaign president Sir Andrew Bowden said staying in the EU would lead to further integration of European security forces, possibly spelling the end of our own world-class intelligence services.

Remain campaigners point to the success of the European Arrest Warrant scheme with figures showing more than 150 suspected criminals have been extradited back to Europe from Sussex and 25 criminals wanted by Sussex Police have been returned to face trial between 2010 and 2015.

David Cameron said that EU membership boosted the UK’s standing on the world stage and Brexit would increase the likelihood of warfare in Europe.

Former spy chiefs also backed the PM, claiming that leaving could hamper the UK’s ability to tackle terrorism by losing access to shared intelligence with other EU countries.

A £753M INDUSTRY FACING UNCERTAINTY

MILLIONS of EU visitors every year come to Sussex to enjoy the delights of the Royal Pavilion, Seven Sisters and Brighton beach.

Remain campaigners claim that leaving would be extremely damaging for the county’s tourism industry, which is worth £753 million annually.

Brighton and Hove Liberal Democrats claim applying for UK visas would deter thousands of European tourists while Brexit would add to the costs of flights and mobile phone usage abroad for UK residents.

Jeremy Ogden, Brighton and Hove Hoteliers Association chairman, claims remaining in could help lead to parity on VAT – which is significantly lower in some EU countries – in the tourism sector.

Trade association UKinbound claims 82 per cent of its 300-plus membership of tourism firms want the UK to remain.

Vote Leave campaigners said it would be in the interests of both Britain and the EU to ensure an agreement for red-tape free and cheap travel between the two remains after Brexit.

As the UK is not part of the Euro or the Schengen agreement for passport-movement, they claim the UK’s tourism industry will remain largely unaffected while the tourist appeal of the UK will continue to attract visitors.

Nigel Huddleston MP, a Remain campaigner, inadvertently flagged up a benefit of Brexit by saying a weakened pound would boost inbound travel.

CUT OFF FROM DEALS OR NEW CHANCES?

TREASURY analysis estimates that Brexit will cost the country £200 billion in lost trade and £200 billion in foreign investment over the next 15 years.

A report by Brighton and Hove Liberal Democrats points to recent figures showing a fifth of Greater Brighton businesses were sold internationally.  One in 10 had their main market overseas with one in nine primarily dependent on international suppliers.

Remain campaigners, including Ken Clarke MP, claim Brexit would be “extremely damaging” to the English sparkling wine industry while others point to damage to Brighton and Hove’s £100 million a year English as a Foreign Language industry.

Among local companies to speak in favour of Remain are Brighton Gin and Horsham-based Ceres Power.

Leave campaigners say the UK would have two years after the referendum to hammer out new trade deals and it would not be in the interests of the EU to introduce punitive and protectionist trade tariffs with the UK when it exports £8 billion more in goods to our shores than it imports.

Sir Andrew Bowden said leaving the EU would allow the UK to reach more favourable trade deals of its own with flourishing economies elsewhere.

A recent leaked Government memo said resistance to free trade deals by other EU members was costing the UK £2.5 billion a year.

CITY BENEFITS FROM LOOKING OUT TO EUROPE
By Simon Kirby, Caroline Lucas and Peter Kyle

One of the best things about being an MP for Brighton and Hove is having the chance to meet our city’s inspiring entrepreneurs and innovative small businesses. 

We firmly believe that their future is brighter if Britain remains in the EU.

For small businesses, stability in the economy is vital. We don’t know exactly what a post-Brexit Britain would look like but the experts agree that a period of instability would be almost inevitable and for the smallest businesses, this could be fatal.

For exporters, being part of a single market gives access to over 500 million consumers. 

Small businesses cannot afford to comply with different sets of rules when they seek to export their goods and services in the way large corporations can.

Small firms benefit from a simple set of rules like those in the Single Market. 

Brighton and Hove is an internationally-facing city. We all benefit from firms choosing to base themselves here whilst trading across borders. 

Similarly we’re lucky to have so many talented people from other EU countries working here – a right that Brightonians also enjoy in the EU.

As MPs from three different parties, we have many differences, but one thing we agree on is that our city is better off because of Britain’s membership of the European Union.

LEAVING THE EU IS THE ONLY OPTION FOR US
By Sir Andrew Bowden, former Brighton Kemptown MP and president of Vote Leave Brighton and Hove

I ACTUALLY believe the great majority of people in this country have a great feeling for this country and have a high quality of patriotism. 

We don’t flaunt it but there is a deep, deep feeling of pride. If our nation is going to continue to play a significant role in the world, it has got to leave the EU.

Winston Churchill put it best when he said: “We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked, but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. 

“If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”

Over a period of time in the last 20 years, we have seen more and more power going to Europe and all this has convinced me that we must choose either the United States of Europe (with all its consequences) or be our own independent nation making our own decisions, electing our own government and controlling our own destiny.

There will be ups and downs if we vote to leave. 

I’m not suggesting that by coming out everything will be El Dorado tomorrow. 

It won’t be, but I would argue that the problems of staying in would be greater than the problems of coming out. 

THE ARGUS TO HOLD EU DEBATE

WITH the vote now less than a month away, we are today launching our EU referendum coverage – which will include a special Argus debate evening.

Polling stations across the county will be opening their doors on June 23 and voters will be given the chance to have their first direct stay on our future involvement with Europe for the first time in 40 years.

We will be spending the next month bringing you comprehensive coverage of the key issues and how both referendum results could impact on our county.

One of the highlights of our coverage is sure to be our EU debate on June 8, which will feature a panel of top speakers including Brighton Pavilion MP Caroline Lucas, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan and The Freedom Association’s Rory Bloomfield.