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6:56am Thursday 24th January 2008
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Experts are warning homeowners to get out of the property market before a massive crash wipes more than £100 million off the value of Sussex homes.
Slowing house prices and mounting worries over sub-prime mortgage lending has led industry bosses to predict that the county's property market will slump in 2008.
Thousands of tenants could also be affected as estate agents go bust, swallowing up legal fees and deposits in the process.
The cracks are already beginning to show with Farrells, the Hove based estate agent, appearing to be the latest casualty of the downturn.
A spokesman for the Estate Agent Ombudsman said: "People are being affected everywhere and estate agents are no different.
"Places like Sussex where there has been a large increase in property prices in the last decade could well be affected more than most.
"If the downturn is as dramatic as many fear then a conservative estimate would be that £100 million would be wiped from the Sussex market within a year."
One source from leading property marketing firm, TeamProp, added: "I'm telling people to get out of the market quickly and diversify their portfolios.
"A crash is going to happen."
House prices across the county have rocketed in the last decade, with hotspots such as Brighton and Hove and Chichester among the places where the highest rises have been recorded.
That sudden rise has left the county vulnerable to equally dramatic falls in values.
And while many experts say large swathes of the county will be badly affected by the slump, some believe the most in demand parts of Sussex will survive any downturn relatively unscathed.
One Mid Sussex estate agent said: "It's not as good as it used to be but it is still a good market. Most of the problem is that the papers keep going on about it and making people nervous."
Any drop in house prices would be a fresh blow for families who already face having to settle for worse deals on their mortgages if their current packages run out this year.
National Homebuyers, the UK's largest home purchase company, has launched a £250 million fund to take advantage of tumbling prices by buying up homes and tempting sellers with quick cash.
Across the country an estimated 45,000 homes will be repossessed in 2008 because owners cannot meet their mortgage repayments.
Julian King, from National Homebuyers, said: "Banks have been lending too much to those who cannot afford it and subsequently ended up struggling to meet extortionate mortgage repayments.
"This year we're on a mission to help people sell the home they can't afford more easily and efficiently than ever before. We're focused on removing as much stress from the process for them as possible.
"The tragedy of people losing their homes because they cannot meet repayments must be avoided. This increases the likelihood of families being broken up because of debt."
Mystery still surrounds the sudden closure of Farrells, the estate agents in Goldstone Villas, which abandoned its offices without warning more than a week ago.
Frantic calls from tenants, landlords and homeowners have all gone unanswered, leaving most connected to the company fearing substantial financial losses.
Even TeamProp, which helps market Farrells' properties and has a close association with the firm, said it was still "in the dark" over what had happened.
A spokesman admitted: "It sounds as thought they've gone under, but we honestly are as much in the dark as anyone else."
Chairman of Brighton and Hove Estate Agent Association, Hugh Tucknott, said he also remained in the dark.
The full effect Farrells' closure will have on customers remains unclear but dozens of its people have contacted The Argus saying they fear they will lose out on thousands of pounds entrusted to the firm.
They include people who have paid out hefty deposits, are in the middle of buying or selling properties and who have forked out estate agent fees.
Some have even said they feel unsafe and have been forced to change their locks because Farrells has copies of their front door keys.
One industry source told The Argus that "some of the mess" could be sorted out fairly easily.
But he added that a lot depended on whether Farrells had made use of deposit protection schemes and had taken out proper insurance policies.
He said: "It could lead to some legal action, which would place further burden on customers.
"If the firm has been through all the protect procedures with deposits, it should be fairly easy and straight forward. But that doesn't stop people quite rightly getting worried."
Bill McClintock, a spokesman for the Estate Agent Ombudsman, added: "If Farrells has done everything by the book, customers should be okay.
"However it's not a nice feeling to be in that situation."
One customer, a tenant, said she was told that Farrells' head of lettings, Gary Vincent, had "gone to work on the trains".
She said: "I called my landlady who said that she had been trying to get in touch with them for two weeks as she had not received January's rental payment and each time she called there was no answer.
"We advised the landlady that we had spoken to Gary about ten days before notifying him of a delay with our rent to be told that he was leaving the firm and going to work for the trains."
Branches of Link Up Properties in Hove and Shoreham have also closed, a company spokeswoman confirmed.
Nobody was available to comment further on the reasons for the closure of the two branches which were both independently run.
The Argus was not able to contact anyone from Farrells.
Are you preparing for a housing market recession? Leave your comments below.
phil, brighton says...
7:17am Thu 24 Jan 08
graham, hove says...
7:44am Thu 24 Jan 08
Experts are warning homeowners to get out of the property market before a massive crash wipes more than £100 million off the value of Sussex homes.
Phil, Kemptown says...
7:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
Anna B, Brighton says...
8:03am Thu 24 Jan 08
Priced out, Worthing says...
8:16am Thu 24 Jan 08
Anna B wrote:Anna B - You are about to learn the hard way dear.
This is complete rubbish. The FT reported that the website propertyfinder had four times more people looking at Brighton than anywhere else. Brighton prices are bucking the trend but who will believe that with all this negative reporting? Loads of people are moving out of London to live here - easy commute and better value for money, that's why I did it. Come on Argus, support your readers by reporting the truth!
Alex Chapman, Hove says...
8:20am Thu 24 Jan 08
JD, Brighton says...
8:23am Thu 24 Jan 08
Gareth, says...
8:23am Thu 24 Jan 08
One Mid Sussex estate agent said: "It's not as good as it used to be but it is still a good market. Most of the problem is that the papers keep going on about it and making people nervous."
James, Portslade says...
8:38am Thu 24 Jan 08
bob, lewes says...
8:42am Thu 24 Jan 08
Simon, Worthing says...
8:45am Thu 24 Jan 08
CH, Hove says...
8:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
roger, Hove says...
8:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
argus is daily mail in disguise, Hove says...
8:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
David, Cambs says...
8:53am Thu 24 Jan 08
Martin, Rottingdean says...
8:55am Thu 24 Jan 08
David, Cambs says...
9:06am Thu 24 Jan 08
Numb, here says...
9:10am Thu 24 Jan 08
richboy, brighton says...
9:11am Thu 24 Jan 08
james, worthing says...
9:11am Thu 24 Jan 08
jus, hove says...
9:14am Thu 24 Jan 08
Cookey, SW2 says...
9:15am Thu 24 Jan 08
Honest John, Inspecting his new magic beans from National Homebuyers says...
9:16am Thu 24 Jan 08
brambo wrote:Somewhat simplistic view of economics. Did you get that from your pull-out guide in today's Daily Sport?
Good. Now people who earn a normal wage can get on the ladder and all those toffs from London and scumbag landlords who buy to let can **** off.
jus, st. aubyns, hove says...
9:17am Thu 24 Jan 08
David wrote:160k for a semi in hove? do me a favour!! you can't get a 1 bed flat down my street for less than 180k!! studio's START at 120k at the moment!! keep it real mister!!
brambo I agree.. People have a right to buy an average home and when you consider they need to fall back to 3.5 times earning, when currently its pipped at 7-9 times earning, prices will need to fall 35% to bring them back to 2002 levels. Heres my predictions: So 325 detached fall to 212k.. 294 detached fall to 192k 220k detached needs to fall to approx 150k 160k semi needs to fall to 105K 120k terraced house to fall to 80k
journo, hove says...
9:17am Thu 24 Jan 08
Jonathan, Wadhurst says...
9:33am Thu 24 Jan 08
Stroller, Hove says...
9:35am Thu 24 Jan 08
Alice, Shoreham says...
9:40am Thu 24 Jan 08
Dave, Brighton says...
9:41am Thu 24 Jan 08
DAT, London says...
9:43am Thu 24 Jan 08
James, Gloucester says...
9:44am Thu 24 Jan 08
DAT, London says...
9:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
James, is a prat says...
9:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
JD, London says...
9:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
shane knight, says...
9:47am Thu 24 Jan 08
Bilbo Baggins, Hobbit Town? says...
9:48am Thu 24 Jan 08
Dan, Hove says...
9:49am Thu 24 Jan 08
Serious, Hove says...
9:52am Thu 24 Jan 08
James wrote:I will bet you any money that any given average property in this area will not drop in value by 50% in the next three years. Any money.
This is not scare mongering it is the truth. For the last 10 years idiots have been saying property is a good investment or can replace a pension. Property will sink at least 50% in the next 3 years.
graham, hove says...
10:00am Thu 24 Jan 08
Snooper, Brighton says...
10:00am Thu 24 Jan 08
David, Bognor says...
10:03am Thu 24 Jan 08
G., Brighton says...
10:03am Thu 24 Jan 08
Paul Smith, Hove says...
10:07am Thu 24 Jan 08
Lara, says...
10:08am Thu 24 Jan 08
JD wrote:Well said. Maybe this will stop some people making the biggest financial mistake of their lives.
As I have seen many economists recently say - and not lenders, estate agents, mortgage brokers (advisers - sic!), there is no doubt at all prices nationally will fall 35% by 2012 or so and more in areas such as Brighton - as they went up more here. Accept it. Miles - brave and brilliant man. You will stop a few people at least from making the biggest financial error of their lives -and put off buying or not invest in property (invest, that\'s a laugh). By the way, I\'m a Chartered Financial Planner and I give investment advice to real people and we have advised to clear out since 2006. Over the cycle this will prove obvious, in retrospect. But the hype has been astonishing. \'Captain, you cannae change the laws of... economics.\'
PT, UK says...
10:14am Thu 24 Jan 08
jay, hove says...
10:21am Thu 24 Jan 08
King Stromba, Staffs says...
10:21am Thu 24 Jan 08
Paul Smith, Hove says...
10:24am Thu 24 Jan 08
james, portslade says...
10:24am Thu 24 Jan 08
TTW, Brighton says...
10:24am Thu 24 Jan 08
Jill, Bognor says...
10:26am Thu 24 Jan 08
Eric Pink, Switzerland says...
10:29am Thu 24 Jan 08
Flat Foot Soozie, Brunswick Square says...
10:29am Thu 24 Jan 08
T.Ruth (genuine), brighton says...
10:31am Thu 24 Jan 08
Mark, london says...
10:31am Thu 24 Jan 08
Tony, leciestershire says...
10:31am Thu 24 Jan 08
Lara, Hove says...
10:36am Thu 24 Jan 08
Hovite, Hove says...
10:37am Thu 24 Jan 08
T.Ruth, brighton says...
10:39am Thu 24 Jan 08
Ex-Argus reader!, Brighton says...
10:40am Thu 24 Jan 08
dc, sussex says...
7:05am Thu 24 Jan 08
don't get me wrong, i am no fan of estate agents, but this scaremongering story is totally unjustified and wrong with no actual fact behind it.
This kind of talk helps no-one, yes things are bleak, but there are positives to come aswell.