Poll forecasts Tory surge to swamp Sussex (From The Argus)

Poll forecasts Tory surge to swamp Sussex

1:30pm Friday 26th September 2008 in Search By Lawrence Marzouk, Local Government Correspondent

Labour’s five Sussex MPs will be wiped out by a Conservative surge at the next election, according to a national poll.

The poll of marginal seats by website Politics Home and YouGov shows the Tories are on track to take every seat in Sussex except Lewes which will return to Lib Dem Norman Baker.

Brighton Pavilion, Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Hastings and Crawley are expected to become Conservative constituencies.

Politics Home said the study was the biggest and most authoritative of its kind, consulting almost 35,000 people across 238 marginal constituencies.

The data was collected during the past three months and before the start of the political conferences.

Constituencies were grouped together in terms of demographics and economy and an average swing was calculated across the group.

Brighton Pavilion, Brighton Kemptown, Hove and Hastings were included in the seaside towns category.

All, according to the pollster, will be taken by the Conservatives for the first time since Tony Blair’s landslide 1997 victory.

More detailed analysis was released for Brighton Pavilion, touted as the Greens’ best chance at the next election to secure its first seat in Parliament.

According to a survey of 272 people in the constituency, 33% would vote for the Conservatives, 28% Labour, 17% Lib Dem, 16% Green and 4% other.

Politics Home stressed the detailed figures at constituency level should not be taken as firm predictions.

David Lepper, MP for the constituency, said: “Before 1997 there had only been one Labour MP in Sussex.

“Polls are interesting to know people’s opinion at a particular time but the general election is not going to be for at least another year.

“I think the Tories will find it difficult to regain the seat.”

Caroline Lucas, Green Party leader and candidate in Brighton Pavilion, said: “Of course the sample size is too small to tell us anything much about voting intentions here in Brighton Pavilion, but the overall message seems to be great news for us.

“It shows more people across the seaside towns are planning to vote Green than ever before and that we are on course to win here, where our vote is clearly strongest.”

Simon Kirby, Tory candidate for Brighton Kemptown, said: “You have to take polls with a pinch of salt but it is always reassuring to be ahead.

“This reflects what we hear on the doorstep.”

According to the poll, Lewes will become Sussex’s only non- Tory seat at the next election.

Norman Baker said: “There is a great deal of support for the Lib Dems which is very robust.

“If Mr Cameron thinks he is going to march into Lib Dem territory, then he's got another think coming.”