A GENERAL election predictor is forecasting the Conservatives will take the Labour seat of Brighton Kemptown by 1,000 votes.

The Electoral Calculus takes into consideration national polling as well as the political demographic of the area's constituents.

At this early stage, it forecasts that Conservative Joe Miller will unseat Labour's Lloyd Russell-Moyle by 1.8 per cent of the vote.

It predicts that both parties will have a lower vote share but Labour will be more affected, with the Greens, who did not stand in the last election, and Liberal Democrats taking large amounts of votes from Mr Russell-Moyle.

The website admits that pollster error, campaign swing and tactical voting can affect this prediction.

Full prediction:

CON 2017: 18,835 (38.3%)

2019: 18,558 (36.3%)


2017: 28,703 (58.3%)

2019: 17,649 (34.6%)


2017: 1,457 (3.0%)

2019: 7,379 (14.5%)


2017: 0 (0.0%)

2019: 4,304 (8.4%)


2017: 0 (0.0%)

2019: 2,177 (4.3%)


2017: 212 (0.4%)

2019: 917 (1.8%)


2017: 0 (0.0%)

2019: 79 (0.2%)

Responding to the prediction, Mr Russell-Moyle said: "I think to be fair it's probably the other way round with the Liberal Democrats [and Greens] but we're looking at around those kinds of numbers."

Labour's Nancy Platts, the current leader of Brighton and Hove City Council, ran for the seat in 2015.

She lost to the then incumbent MP, Conservative's Simon Kirby, by 700 votes.

Davy Jones, the would-be Green candidate in the 2017 election was stood down by the party in a “progressive alliance” pact to unseat Mr Kirby in 2017.

Mr Russell-Moyle, who gained the seat, said: "Many Greens after the 2015 election came up to me and Nancy and said they bitterly regretted not lending us their vote.

"With the number of people came up to us, we would have won that election.

"I don't want Greens to lend us their vote, I want them to know as their MP I have done them proud and will continue to do them proud.

"There's a real danger you will get Brexiteer who didn't vote for ban on fur and will be more than happy to see us with some Trumpian deal."

The predictor, which can be found at electoralcalculous.co.uk, also forecasts that the Green's Caroline Lucas will increase her vote share in Brighton Pavilion and Labour's Peter Kyle will defeat Conservative Robert Nemeth in Hove and Portslade.

Nationally, it forecasts the Conservatives will get a 96 majority at the election.

Councillor Joe Miller said: "The only poll that matters is on December 12, we’re determined to get Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven back on the road to a brighter future, and as such I am taking nothing for granted.

"Every vote for any other candidate other than myself in Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven will result in us coming closer to an anti-semitic Corbyn government.

"As such I will be speaking to the residents who I am seeking support from so I can represent them properly in Parliament right up until 10pm on 12th Decemember.

"Whilst I may not be a man to hold down the speaker, or pick up the mace; I am one to not hold people down from their ambitions and I will pick up on their issues and concerns."