AS A YOUNGSTER I was much impressed by a book called The Shape Of Things To Come by HG Wells.

Among his many predictions were another world war and a devastating plague. As the book was written in 1933, the Second World War was correctly forecast but I think Wells also said that each major conflict would arrive faster and be more deadly than the last. Luckily that has not happened and so far there has been no worldwide plague although several illnesses such as Sars have for a while threatened to be destructive.

The latest of these is the coronavirus which has already killed more people than Sars. It put the spotlight on Brighton and Hove when several early cases were found here.

It put some people in mind of the smallpox epidemic which broke out in Brighton during the 1950s. The outbreak made the name of Dr William Parker, then deputy medical officer of health in Brighton. Dr Parker, who later became the long-serving medical officer, correctly saw that isolation was the key to eliminating smallpox – an illness which was generally rare by this time.

Ten people died from the disease, while dozens more contracted it but survived. Thousands were vaccinated and isolation hospitals at Bevendean and Portslade were brought back into use.

But it all took time and a whole year went by before smallpox was officially eliminated.

A recent feature in The Argus showed how fearful local residents were of a disease which had previously killed millions of people worldwide.

So far there has been a considerably more measured response within Brighton and Hove to the current virus which seems to be much milder. But there are some signs that visitors are avoiding the city because of the virus. It is hard to be sure because other factors such as stormy weather have put off many potential trippers.

This week is important for tourism in the city because most children are on half-term holiday. Council leader Nancy Platts has been commendably firm in stressing that Brighton and Hove is open for business as usual. But the coronavirus has already killed large numbers of people in China where it started and could become a pandemic.

It has been pointed out that flu killed more people a century ago than the First World War. Flu is still a big killer and is highly unpleasant for those unlucky enough to catch it. Yet it does not seem to frighten most people, possibly because its properties are well known. Flu vaccines are widely available and generally effective and luckily the number of cases so far this winter has been low.

The more we learn about the current virus the better we will be able to deal with it. So far the Government’s widely distributed messages on this topic have been sensible, clearly written and calm. The national public reaction seems to be one of mild unease with only a few people panicking.

This is not the first disease which has started in China as a result of unhygienic conditions in meat markets. The Chinese also appear to have been slow to reveal the seriousness of the outbreak in the early stages, allowing it to spread. But now they are being much forthcoming, realising that such a fast moving disease demands a united worldwide response.

They also need to take serious steps to improve public health conditions in markets.

The smallpox epidemic of 1950 was almost the last outbreak of the disease in Britain before it was finally eliminated.

Improved hygiene got rid of killer diseases like cholera many years ago. Other diseases such as diphtheria and polio, much feared when I was a child, have been wiped out through the miracle of modern medicine. Scarlet fever, which I suffered from aged four, is now down to a few thousand cases a year and is seldom fatal.

If a vaccine is developed against the coronavirus, people had better take it or in future there could be a resurgence of cases as has happened with measles and mumps. Right now it is essential to find out all we can about the virus both to stop it spreading and to avoid future problems.

Wells was much listened to in his time as a man who could make science and medicine understandable and intriguing. Some of his predictions in The Shape Of Things To Come were hopelessly wide of the mark and he was too optimistic about the ability of humans to change things for the better until the Second World War disproved that. But he was on the right lines about worldwide diseases and we must seize the moment in tackling coronavirus.