A 'COVID calculator' has estimated the probability that regions in Sussex will become coronavirus "hotspots".

The interactive map says Brighton and Hove is the most likely area in the county to become a hotspot, with a 70 per cent chance.

In the week leading up to October 1, there were 115 confirmed new Covid-19 cases in the city compared to 39 cases the week before.

Though health experts said some of this could be put down to an increase in testing, Brighton and Hove's Covid alert was still upgraded to amber on Tuesday.

The Argus:

Director of public health Alistair Hill said: “It’s really concerning that the number of cases has more than doubled over the past week. 

"If transmission keeps increasing we risk the Government imposing more restrictions on the city. 

“We all now need to make extra efforts or risk a local lockdown."

Elsewhere in Sussex, the projected likelihoods of regions becoming a hotspot are:

  • Horsham - 38 per cent
  • Hastings - 25 per cent
  • Adur - 24 per cent
  • Worthing - 17 per cent
  • Eastbourne - 16 per cent
  • Mid Sussex - 16 per cent
  • Crawley - 15 per cent
  • Chichester - 14 per cent 
  • Lewes - 9 per cent
  • Arun - 6 per cent
  • Wealden - 3 per cent
  • Rother - 2 per cent

The map has been made by a team from Imperial College London, with a hotspot being defined as "a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 of the population per week".

It uses data from daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths to make its predictions, updating each day as new information is made available.

The Argus:

Regions are colour-coded depending on the probability they will become a hotspot, with the most at-risk areas (between 75 per cent and 100 per cent probability) coloured red. 

The nearest red area to Sussex is Waverly in Surrey, which has been given an 82 per cent probability.

Fellow seaside resorts Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole in Dorset are also in the red, with a 93 per cent probability of becoming a hotspot.

The Covid Calculator's lead researcher from ImperialCollege London's department of mathematics, professor Axel Gandy, said: "The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas.

"Covid-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.”