Coronavirus cases in Brighton could double, study warns

These figures "assume a situation in which (there is) no change in interventions" such as a local or national lockdown.

It is now hoped the national lockdown announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday evening will help slow the rate of infection.

Boris Johnson announced a second national lockdown on Saturday

The research by the Imperial College London aimed to project the rate at which Covid-19 rates would rise in different regions of the UK over the coming weeks.

Each area is shown on an interactive map coloured in different shades of red, with darker colours signifying a higher infection rate.

Figures from the university were displayed by the Prime Minister on Saturday evening as he explained why a second national lockdown was being implemented.

• READ MORE: Boris Johnson confirms month-long lockdown in England (here is what you can and can't do)

Within the study, Brighton and Hove is already identified as a "hotspot 100" as it has more than 100 weekly coronavirus cases per 100,000 population.

The only other Sussex region to be classed as a "hotspot 100" is Crawley.

The most recent Public Health England figures used by Brighton and Hove City Council show there were 479 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the city in the seven days leading up to October 27.

This means the city's weekly coronavirus rate stands at 164.7 confirmed cases per 100,000 population.

The coronavirus testing centre in East Brighton Park

But the Imperial College London study shows that there is a high chance that this figure could soon rise.

Researchers said there was an 81 per cent chance that there would be more than 300 confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 population in the week ending November 14, making the city a "hotspot 300".

In Crawley, which has a seven-day rolling rate of 149 confirmed cases per 100,000 population in week leading up to October 27, the study said there is a 78 per cent chance this will rise to more than 300 in the week ending November 14.

The study also gave figures for the projected likelihood of figures rising to more than 200 confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 population in all regions of Sussex, making them a "hotspot 200".

These were as follows:

• Brighton and Hove - 98 per cent
• Crawley - 94 per cent
• Chcihester - 74 per cent
• Lewes - 45 per cent
• Eastbourne - 43 per cent
• Mid Sussex - 42 per cent
• Arun - 39 per cent
• Worthing - 26 per cent
• Wealden - 23 per cent
• Adur 21 per cent
• Horsham - 13 per cent
• Hastings - 8 per cent
• Rother - 5 per cent

Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London, said: “The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas.

"COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.”

The methodology for the study states: "This site gives estimates of the reproduction number of COVID-19 and projections of cases by local authority in the UK based on testing data and mortality data.

"Changes in measures and lockdowns are not an explicit part of the model; hence their effect may not appear for one or two weeks post the date of implementation.

The South East of England shown in the Imperial College London map

"All estimates and projections have uncertainty and probability measures associated with them.

"Central estimates should be treated cautiously: look at the range.

"Projections of cases assume that interventions (e.g. lockdowns, school closures) and behaviour patterns do not change.

"A statistical model is used to estimate quantities that cannot be directly measured, such as the reproduction number R."