Labouring

In fairness, every government that achieves a third term incurs the same problems. The Conservatives in the early 1960s and late 1980s experienced the same. Once the political tide turns it is very difficult for any government to prevail.

It said a lot for John Major and little for Neil Kinnock when the Tories pulled off their victory in 1992 – Major actually prevailed against the tide. Unfortunately the Major victory was as hollow as the tide of change became a tsunami and swept them from power five years later.

Had Gordon Brown called an election in the autumn of 2007 he would have won but the margin would have been narrow. I believe if an election had been held the Conservatives would have received a larger share of the vote forcing the government to rely on Scottish and Welsh MPs to pursue its policies.

The current system favours Labour, who could gain an overall majority with only 33% of the popular vote. This is one reason why Labour is unlikely to enter a pact with the Lib Dems who would demand electoral reform.

Opinion polls suggest the Lib Dems are way below their 2005 showing. There are few safe Liberal seats. Even those with sizable majorities, such as Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, are vulnerable.

If Labour loses the next election it is probable that the left will re-emerge although not on the same scale as the 1960s and 1970s. New Labour has a problem in that most of its marginal seats have ‘moderate’ leaning MPs.

If this happens, there will be some re-alignment of the centre left. But those of us who remember the early 1980s realise it will make little progress.

Richard J Szypulski Lavender Street, Brighton