T'is the season to be jolly - unless, it seems, you are a shopkeeper.

Early reports of record sales on Boxing Day were contradicted this week by researchers claiming shoppers deserted town centres during the sales and forecasting a gloomy 2006 for retailers. But is all this doom and gloom justified?

Two research companies released figures showing a reduction in the number of people shopping in the post-Christmas sales.

Retail monitor group FootFall said there was a 12 per cent drop in the number of shoppers hitting the High Street in the week between Christmas and New Year compared with 2004.

A few days later research group SPSL announced an eight per cent drop for the same time period compared with last year.

SPSL director Dr Tim Denison said: "The sales campaign began well, if not spectacularly. Since then, though, retail footfalls have dropped off markedly and the first week of sales yielded 7.8 per cent fewer shoppers than the same week last year. "What Christmas 2005 has established already is that the leading retailers can cope with the more unsettled consumer environment in the short term.

"They will, however, remain circumspect about what 2006 will bring, particularly on the back of the first few sale days."

In Brighton there was a mixed response to the news.

Churchill Square shopping centre manager Derek Maddison said retailers there saw a drop in the number of sales shoppers but not as much as the national figure.

He said: "We have seen a five or six per cent drop in footfall but a number of our retailers are reporting an improvement in turnover.

Some are reporting the opposite so it is a real swings and roundabouts scenario."

Mr Madison will be able to determine whether the centre has done better or worse than in 2004 when he receives shops' financial reports in two weeks.

He said the reduction in footfall was a concern because Brighton struggled to take advantage of high public spending because of parking and transport problems.

He said: "While this downturn may just be in keeping with the national trend, when we have the opportunity to take advantage of additional spending we find that Brighton is gridlocked and people can't park.

"If people have to queue for an hour to park in Brighton they might choose to shop elsewhere and that is a major worry for everyone."

Tony Mernagh, the chief executive of Brighton and Hove Business Forum, said: "The sales were good on the first two days but then the cold weather put people off. The sales towards the end of the week were certainly not as good as they should have been."

He said the combination of settling house prices, higher interest rates and debt put people off shopping and he predicted the retail downturn would continue for the next six to nine months.

He said: "Smaller traders that didn't buy their Christmas stock wisely and don't have the capital of the large companies will find the next six months a big struggle."

However, David Bird, who owns Silverado jewellery shop in Kensington Gardens, Brighton, and is a member of the North Laine Traders'

Association, said business was better than last year.

He said: "The general feeling here is that the North Laine did quite well. We don't measure footfall but people seem pretty pleased with trade."

He said his shop increased takings during the week between Christmas and New Year by about five per cent compared with 2004.

He said: "The North Laine doesn't always follow national spending patterns.

The area has established a good following and has been helped by the Jubilee project which is bringing people into the area."

Elsewhere in Sussex there were similar mixed reports.

Worthing town centre manager Sharon Clarke said footfall was down by about nine per cent compared with 2004 but that, as in Churchill Square, many retailers reported higher turnover.

She said: "Footfall is only one trade indicator. If turnover was down as well we would be worried but we are not too concerned at the moment."

She said the school holidays, which gave families a full week off before Christmas, could have played a part in the slump in trade afterwards.

She said: "People had so long before Christmas they probably got bored with shopping and wanted to do something else."

Bill Plumridge, the manager of the Arndale shopping centre in Eastbourne, reported a ten per cent increase in footfall last week and is cautiously optimistic for trading in 2006.

He said: "It always depends on the economy. If utility bills and mortgages go up people have less to spend. I am quite confident we will be OK."

Gill Buchanan, the manager of Swan Walk shopping centre in Horsham, said footfall figures were up 5.2 per cent on last year.

She said: "Shops have been selling much more aggressively this year.

Rather than a 20 or 30 per cent reduction, everything has been half price.

"There were lots of empty shelves showing shops had sold their stock, which is a good sign."

She said the centre benefited from a relatively wealthy clientele and sales did not peak and trough as much as the national averages.

Clothes shop Next announced sales in shops that had not been changed or extended were down 3.2 per cent before Christmas.

The company expected sales to continue to be down by about three per cent for the next six months.

Chocolatiers Thorntons this week announced dismal figures.

While trade was down by 4.4 per cent in October, the decline widened to 4.9 per cent in the 26 weeks up to and including Christmas Eve.

Meanwhile the British arm of fashion chain Kookai announced on Tuesday it was going into administration because of poor sales, putting 600 jobs at risk.

Thursday, January 5, 2005