Oddschecker football writer Ryan Elliott expects goals as Albion head to rivals Crystal Palace's Selhurst Park home
The Result
Albion’s titanic win against Huddersfield last weekend has eased any imminent relegation fears, but the big games don’t stop coming as eyes now turn to Selhurst Park, a place where the Seagulls have claimed victory just once in 34 years.
Crystal Palace, whose recent run of good form has seen them pull three points clear of Albion, have the second-worst home record in the Premier League this season – losing seven of their 14 matches on home soil – and what a time this would be to shatter the Selhurst hoodoo.
But, as has become a theme of these previews, backing Albion to earn anything away from home is generally foolhardy, and the added spice of this rivalry is unlikely to change that. Eight points from 14 away games makes for pretty grim reading, and this is the sort of fixture Chris Hughton’s men continually freeze in.
Looking at the betting markets, Albion are 4/1 to claim victory on Saturday, which is a far from enticing price given how they’ve performed on the road in the last year-and-a-half, which is why the smart money is unfortunately on Palace, priced at 10/11.
The 3-1 win at the Amex was a special, special night, but can this be repeated? I’m not hopeful. The value is with Palace; let’s just hope Hughton can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-brighton/winner
The Banker
I have a value banker this week – both teams to score.
This may come as a surprise considering both teams have scored in just 29% of Palace’s home matches this season (and 57% of Albion’s away matches), but recent form suggests this trend may well be bucked.
Palace have conceded in four of their last five at home, while Albion have netted six times in their last four away matches – both teams scoring in each. Considering their record is so poor, Albion have still scored in eight of their last ten away games. It’s just keeping them out at the other end which is the issue.
17/16 is a cracking BTTS price for this fixture.
Sending off in match
Shane Duffy saw red in the sides’ first meeting back in December, and my longshot is for there to be a sending off this time around – priced at 24/5.
Albion’s last red card at Selhurst came in 2012, where Lewis Dunk was dismissed after just eight minutes (let’s hope we don’t see a repeat of that), and the cauldron-like atmosphere we’re likely to see on Saturday is always conducive to fireworks going off.
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