Oddschecker football writer Ryan Elliott expects goals as Albion host Southampton

The Result

Amongst all the euphoria of that penalty shootout victory at The Den and reaching Wembley, the small matter of a Premier League relegation battle still looms large, and Albion’s clash with Southampton has the potential to be truly season-defining.

Win, and Albion will surely consider themselves safe – although Cardiff’s trip to the Amex may yet throw a spanner in the works. Lose, and that familiar sense of negativity and dread will quickly re-emerge within the fan-base.

The Saints certainly do not look like relegation fodder under Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Austrian has lost just four of his last 14 Premier League matches in charge, and excellent performances against Spurs, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea suggests they are good enough to stay in the division.

Barring the Burnley defeat – which I see as an anomaly – Albion have once again been excellent at the Amex this season, and three clean sheets from their last five at home will massively please Chris Hughton.

Looking at the betting markets, the draw at 11/5 is excellent value. Southampton’s ruggedness under Hasenhuttl cannot be ignored (though Cardiff still did the double over them under his stewardship), while Albion have lost just twice to non-top six opposition at home since their promotion.

The last three league meetings between these two sides have all ended in stalemates, and there’s plenty of value in backing another one.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/brighton-v-southampton/winner

The Banker

My banker is for both teams to score, and it’s priced at a generous 11/10.

Arsenal and Chelsea are the only sides who have prevented Southampton from scoring in their last six away games, and their overall BTTS rate this season is 63%.

Albion also have a healthy BTTS rate (59%), and last kept a clean sheet against the Saints back in 2012, making this a great value pick.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/brighton-v-southampton/both-teams-to-score

The Longshot

Finally, our longshot is for James Ward-Prowse to score first at a massive 12/1.

The newly-capped England man has been superb of late, and with goals in his last three matches, heads into this clash with a taste for blood – especially from dead-ball situations.

In this fixture last season, Southampton opened the scoring after Steven Davis nodded in the rebound after a woodwork-tickling Ward-Prowse free-kick, and considering Albion like to give away the odd silly free-kick on the edge of the box, the 24-year-old is a strong outside prospect in the First Goalscorer marker.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/brighton-v-southampton/first-goalscorer