NEWS from the High Street confirms that consumers appear to have
regained their confidence and are keen to run down the savings built up
in recent years.
Sales are up across a variety of product areas from household goods to
clothing and many retailers are noting a particularly strong recovery in
sales in London and south east England.
There is a trend towards retailers making formal trading statements in
January. This gives investors an update on the vital Christmas and
January sale period.
With the exception of Dixons, which has the special factor of a
computer price war to deal with, the news from the High Street has been
exceptionally good underlining the strength of the recovery in the
domestic economy. Boots announced a sales increase of 7.2% in the three
months to end-December with notably strong trading in Halfords and
Childrens World.
Yesterday, Storehouse, the BhS and Mothercare group and Laura Ashley
both reported that trading was strong. Storehouse said that for the
third year in succession it had had a highly successful Christmas
trading season and that sales post Christmas were ahead of last year's
exceptional levels.
In the six weeks from mid November up to Christmas, sales across the
group were 13% ahead of last year with BhS, Mothercare and the menswear
chain Blazer all achieving sales increases over the period. Sales in the
BhS Christams shop of children's clothing and of lingerie were said to
be particularly encouraging.
The marketplace remains highly competitive and as such did not grow to
the same extent as sales, held back by additional promotional activity.
However profitability was said to be in line with expectations. In the
year to date sales are said to be ahead of the 5% increase reported at
the time of the interim results in November.
Womenswear is very susceptible to changes in fashion and as such
throughout the recession demand has proved to be more resilient than for
other items such as menswear. In the eight weeks to December 25, sales
in Laura Ashley were in line with the company's expectations. There was
a robust performance from the UK and Ireland with sales up 17.6% with
very little discounting.
There was similar growth in north American sales albeit from a low
base in the previous year caused by merchandise and management
difficulties.
The continued deep recession in Continental Europe led to a 2.5%
decline in underlying sales although the company believes that was a
creditable performance in the circumstances. New shops opened in the
last 12 months were all said to have performed well over the Christmas
period. Better stock control means that there was little residual
merchandise for the January sales but even so trading has been strong.
Jacques Vert, the mid-market women's fashionwear group, has record
order levels for its Spring/Summer collection and profits in the first
six months of the year showed jumped by 48% to #833,000.
The interim dividend was raised to 1.5p from 1p as earnings per share
improved to 4.8p from 4.2p. Borrowings during the period more than
halved to #1.7m from #3.9m. Commenting on the results joint chairmen
Alan Green and Jack Cynamon said ''the retail climate which, prior to
the Budget, appeared somewhat gloomy, has begun to show signs of
improving''.
Although sales are expected to have improved for retailers in general
it is the ability to hold up gross margins which is the key criteria for
profits growth. In this respect the likes of Marks & Spencer and
Kingfisher with market leadership and strong sales can be expected to
report healthy profits growth.
Whilst everything in the retail garden appears rosy at the moment
there are some clouds on the horizon, not least tax increases due to
come into effect in April. These will undoutedly cause a sizeable dent
in many households' income and as such can be expected to have an
adverse impact on consumer spending. The Government may seek to offset
this by a further reduction in UK interest rates.
Since the budget the stores sector as a whole has had a strong run
although from time to time concerns resurface about the sustainability
of sales growth.
Some retail shares that are expected to continue to offer attractions
are Next and Storehouse, both having recovered from dire financial
situations. In the current year Storehouse is forecast to make profits
of around #68m compared with #46.6m previously whilst Next should make
taxable profits of #68m compared with #36.2m previously. New store
openings should boost sales at both groups for the forseeable future.
There was some profit-taking in the retail sector and Storehouse
shares were 3p cheaper at 239p after earlier touching a 12 month high
of 253p. Laura Ashley gained 7p to 85p, Next were 5[1/2]p lower at 224p
and Jacques Vert dropped 6p to 200p.
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