May 2014 might be the most significant month so far in the eventful career of Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party.

Farage has represented us in Sussex for the past 15 years in the European Parliament as one the MEPs for the South East of England.

His party has prospered in successive Euro elections as voters become more disillusioned with Britain’s benefits from staying in Europe.

But if the latest opinion polls are right, past successes will be dwarfed by what will happen on May 22 when this year’s contest is staged.

Barring accidents – and UKIP does seem particularly prone to them – it is likely to gain more votes than any other party, pushing the Tories into third place with Labour a poor second and the Liberal Democrats out of the race.

As for the Greens, they may be prominent in Brighton but they are hardly a blip on the radar elsewhere and may struggle to retain their seats.

Farage, who has just turned 50, has been around longer than all his political rivals from the main parties.

Once dismissed by the Prime Minister as a collection of fruitcakes, UKIP has to be taken seriously now it is doing so well in the polls.

The Euro elections have for a long time been seen by electors as an opportunity for protest votes. As far back as 1989 the Greens benefited from this and the Lib Dems have usually fared well.

But each time a general election has been held, most voters have returned to their traditional habits.

Prime Minister David Cameron can cope with the shame of coming second to UKIP.

But the big fear for Tories is that far more people will stick to UKIP in the 2015 general election. UKIP is likely to gain its first MPs, with Farage leading the way somewhere in the south east.

It is also likely to take enough votes from the Tories to let Labour in, possibly in seats such as Crawley and Hastings.

To many people increasingly disillusioned by politics, Farage seems an attractive and unconventional party leader.

Often pictured with a pint and a cigarette, he is more at home in the pub than the Palace of Westminster. He does not seem like the full-time professional politicians who head the main parties.

Farage has picked up concerns by many people about immigration without resorting to the outright racism of the far right.

He is against power being handed over to European institutions without being anti-Europe. He even has a German-born wife.

Farage has wealthy backers who enable him to compete at a national and European level against the big parties.

He also has a gift for publicity that keeps him constantly in the limelight, a vital asset for any small party.

UKIP dices with danger all the time. Barely a week goes by without one of its leading members or candidates making outrageous remarks.

There is a danger that if this becomes too widespread, voters will lose faith in UKIP and the whole tottering edifice could collapse.

But Farage also possesses that vital ingredient for a politician – luck. Here is a man who survived a serious air accident on the day of the last general election.

Allegations about his personal life and his high expenses do not appear to have dented his popularity. He relishes every opportunity to be distinctively different.

I don’t agree with the main thrust of UKIP’s arguments in this month’s elections. Despite all its disadvantages, Britain should not pull out of Europe. It is much stronger in the European Union than it would be lurking outside.

But I do have a sneaking admiration for Farage, a politician prepared to take risks and be bolder than all his rivals.

Look down the long list of candidates if you vote on May 22 in the Euro elections and see how few of them, apart from Farage, are names you even recognise.

Then do not be surprised when the results are declared three days later if Farage has his moment in the sun, with the glow lasting far longer than it ever has done before.