The Green Party is forecast to hold Brighton Pavilion at the next general election, a new forecast has projected.

The latest prediction from election forecaster Electoral Calculus, based on recent opinion polls, said the Greens are currently expected to secure just short of half the votes in Brighton Pavilion when the country goes to the polls later this year.

The website gives Green candidate Sian Berry an 82 per cent chance of winning the seat, following on from current MP Caroline Lucas, who is standing down at the next election.

Ms Berry is forecast to win 49.4 per cent of the vote, while Labour candidate Tom Gray is anticipated to win 35.7 per cent, up from 22.7 per cent at the last election.

Labour is hopeful of winning the only Green constituency in the UK after the party secured an overall majority on Brighton and Hove City Council at the local election in May.

The Argus: Labour's Tom Gray is expected to come second in Brighton Pavilion, according to Electoral CalculusLabour's Tom Gray is expected to come second in Brighton Pavilion, according to Electoral Calculus (Image: Kenny McCracken)

The Conservatives are expected to come third with 8.1 per cent, with Reform UK on 2.9 per cent and the Liberal Democrats with 2.6 per cent.

Sian Berry, who was selected as the Green Party’s candidate for Brighton Pavilion last summer, said: “I am very encouraged by the response from residents I am meeting day in and day out on doorsteps, but I am taking no one's vote for granted and will continue to work hard for the support of everyone in Brighton Pavilion.

“I am determined to hear from every resident about the work they will need from their next MP and what national issues are important to them.

“I hope to learn a lot from my new survey arriving on doorsteps soon.”

Across other parts of Sussex, Labour is forecast to gain seats from the Conservatives in Crawley, Worthing and Hastings, as well as the traditional Tory bastions of Chichester and Horsham, which have never elected a Labour MP.

Speaking to the BBC last week, Rishi Sunak confirmed that the election will be held some time this year.

He said: “The choice at that election is sticking to our plan which is starting to deliver the change that people want to see, and if we stick with it then I can give everyone the peace of mind that there’s a brighter future ahead.”