Yesterday the Cabinet Office estimated that over the next wave of swine flu which is likely to start in the next six weeks, up to 30% of the population may become unwell, but the predicted proportion of cases with complications is now 1 in 6 and the chance of death rate is now at the lower end of the previous range at 1 in a 1000 people who develop flu However, the revised assumptions still have a clinical attack rate of up to 8% of the total population at the peak, which could mean over 20,000 people unwell in Brighton and Hove during the peak week. I suppose, with any luck, we could hope that the Labour Party Conference might be cancelled through 1 in every 12 PR managers being sick?

Thus while many will get away with a mild illness, there will still be 1/12th of the bus drivers, 1/12th of the taxi cabs; 1/12th of the teachers etc off sick during the peak of the influenza outbreak... how will you manage if you cannot get to work or if your child's school is closed through lack of teaching or support staff? Now is the time to start making plans and ways of coping.

Another piece in the news today concerns a family "kept waiting in their car" until an emergency doctor could see them at the Out of Hours Centre at the Royal Sussex County Hospital. Regrettably when a person is suspected of having swine flu, it is not sensible to have them sat in a crowded waiting room with other patients - some of who could have immune deficiency diseases or breathing problems. The advice is, if you think you have symptoms of flu, then PHONE the NHS Swine Flu hotline, don't come along to a public area and spread the disease!

Now the schools are back we can expect coughs and colds spreading everything from swine flu to meningitis... please try and teach your child to wash his or her hands after sneezing and also not to wipe the nose with the back of the hand! Children spread the flu (and meningitis) far more than any other section of the community. We will be starting to vaccinate against Seasonal Flu and Swine Flu over the next few weeks so we are still dependent on good hygiene to stop the spread of disease.

And while this is not directly related to flu... if you are about to go off to University, do please come and check with your GP practice about whether you need any booster shots - flu is not the only infection which can rapidly spread through a college or university.