Defence minister Ivor Caplin could face the firing squad at the next general election.

Tony Blair's most loyal Sussex MP has a fierce battle ahead to save his seat, according to a mid-term poll.

Mr Caplin, the Hove MP and Labour junior minister, has been a vocal supporter of the war with Iraq.

He visited the war-torn country earlier this year to thank British troops for their work.

Rebel MP Des Turner and war sceptic David Lepper will both keep their seats by slim majorities, the survey suggests.

Labour will go on to win the election but with a reduced majority.

The failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the Hutton Inquiry and a series of high-level resignations have rocked the Labour Party.

Saddam Hussein was toppled a year ago and his capture boosted support for the war and the Government at the time.

But since then, more than 500 Allied troops have been killed and violence continues to escalate.

According to a comprehensive study of national polls, the Hove MP will be among those who could pay the price for any drop in popularity.

The Tories will take the Hove seat by a slender 3.67 per cent majority according to a national sample of 5,559 people.

Ivor Caplin was not available to comment about the predictions.

Nicholas Boles, the Conservative candidate for Hove, said: "Obviously the Iraq war has been controversial, particularly in this city.

"It may well be hard for Labour to turn out its rock solid support because of the war.

"If they don't vote or vote Green and Liberal Democrat, it will be a problem for Labour."

The three Labour MPs in Brighton and Hove all admit they will have to fight hard as the battle for the next election begins.

Mr Turner, MP for Kemptown said he did not have much faith in opinion polls but was pleased a victory for Labour in his seat had been predicted.

He said: "There is no doubt the war will be an issue. It has been an issue in local elections and polls for some time."

Pavilion MP Mr Lepper said: "All of us have a difficult fight in the sense that no one can be complacent about the next general election.

"People have different attitudes on the war.

"I was opposed to military action but I now feel it's important we retain a presence in Iraq until a civil administration takes over."

The only other MP expected to fall at the next election is Labour's Michael Foster in Hastings and Rye.

The Conservatives are expected to take both the marginal seats in Sussex.

The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are hoping to enjoy an increase in support.

The results and updated predictions can be found at the web site www.financialcalculus.co.uk/election